May 30, 2023

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Mexico: First woman elected president

What if she is? For the first time, Mexico could have a woman head of state in 2024, considered a luxury, according to the current balance of power within the ruling party, which meets at its annual convention this weekend.

Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, 60, is running against Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrat, 62, to succeed popular President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

The scientist prepares his mind by training against his rival and two other outsiders in the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) and public opinion.

“A woman can be an astronaut, a lawyer, a police officer, a lieutenant governor, a president,” Morena says during a trip far from her stronghold at the invitation of the movement’s governors.

“President! President! Activists chanted in Tijuana or Sonora (Northwest and North).

Her entourage says Mexico, which officially recorded 1,004 femicides in 2021, is poised to elect a female president, except for a few conservative strongholds.

Polls confirm this. 82% say they would be willing to vote for a woman, according to an Encoll Institute survey of 1,211 voting-age Mexicans.

According to the study, published on August 29, Morena’s mayor has a lead over Ebrard in the battle for the nomination: 35% would vote for Sheinbaum to represent the party in power against 26% for Ebrard.

Another Polygrama poll released on September 6 found the gap in his favor narrower (32.9% vs. 30.3%).

Morena’s candidate will have a good chance of winning in 2024, buoyed by President López Obrador’s working-class popularity and facing a weak and divided opposition.

Encol polls show that 42 to 55% of voters are ready to vote for Morena and 16 to 22% for Pan (right), recognizing that the elections are still a long way off.

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Ms. Sheinbaum is close to the president, who describes her as an “imperishable” woman and “a person of faith.”

His Foreign Minister was not entitled to such praise. According to political analyst Pablo Majluf, the French-born Mr. Ebrard, “not one of López Obrador’s closest”.

Ms. Scheinbaum, who is of Lithuanian and Bulgarian descent, said that Mr. López feels very motivated to “continue and be the first female president in history” with Obrador’s social policy.

Morena will nominate its champion or its champion only in 2023 for the July 2024 election.

– I-I vs. K-pop-

Legally, pre-campaigning has not started. And yet, in the direction of young voters, the battle for bisexual influence has redoubled since August.

To break her image as a somewhat strict physicist, Claudia Sheinbaum laughs on Tiktok and says she’s the most distracted student at school.

On the same social network, Marcelo Ebrard declared himself a fan of the K-pop group BTS. And on Twitter, he claimed a WhatsApp number — his own — to respond to any citizen request.

A former mayor of Mexico City, Mr. López lost the primary to Obrador.

The latter, 68 years old and the craftsman who took an unprecedented turn to the left in Mexico’s recent history, confirms that he will retire in 2024 at the end of his single six-year mandate granted by the constitution.

But according to some analysts, he can maintain his influence through an intermediary. He could hold power in the shadows if he is succeeded by a weaker president or one who needs his support, analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor said.

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A lot can change between now and 2023-2024. But the next president could still be the former mayor of Mexico City, Mr. Lopez Obrador was also there.