February 4, 2023

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The IMF forecasts economic growth of 3.4% in 2022 and above 3.5% in the medium term.

(Agence Ecofin) – The multilateral financial institution said the economic shock associated with the war in Ukraine has greatly benefited the CEMAC region, strengthening its external position and its gradual post-pandemic recovery.

Economic growth in the member countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic and Chad) is expected to reach 3.4% in 2022, gradually exceeding 3.5% in the medium range. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in a press release published on Thursday, December 22.

« The outlook for 2023 is broadly positive, thanks to higher oil prices, Covid-19 containment measures and careful management of oil spills under fund-backed schemes. “, noted the IMF at the end of annual discussions with member countries of the regional bloc.

« The war-related shock in Ukraine greatly benefited the CEMAC region, strengthening its external position and its gradual post-pandemic recovery. “, he added.

The agency pointed out that public debt should come down from 53% of GDP in 2022 to almost 40% of GDP by 2026, and gross external reserves should decrease from 3.5 months of imports by the end of 2022 to 4.5 months in 2026. , meaning a ” A little less than the IMF’s definition for a currency union that is rich in natural resources [5 mois] ».

Inflation is expected to ease to 3.3% in 2023, before falling below 3% from 2024 if monetary policy tightens. The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) has raised its key rate three times in less than a year to respond to inflationary pressures and support foreign exchange reserve levels.

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« The fund’s trustees have welcomed the tightening of monetary policy to date and will encourage BEAC to tighten it further if it observes rising inflation, deviations from the target foreign exchange reserve path or slippages. recommended the IMF.

In the medium term, the Fund expects economic growth in CEMAC member countries to gradually increase to 3.5%. A business environment that has started in recent years.

read more:

08/03/2022 – CEMAC Region Economic Growth Projections for 2022, 2023 and 2024 (Infographic)

14/01/2022 – WAEMU-CEMAC: Growth prospects for the franc zone in the coming years

03/07/2021 – Peak cuts its growth forecast for CEMAC to 1.3% in 2021

29/10/2019 – Economic outlook for 2019: CEMAC’s growth driven by structural projects (Banque de France)