Ukraine-Russia War: Has Putin’s Assault on Ukraine’s Power Grid Failed?

“In December he said, ‘Yes, we’re doing it, but who started doing it?

History was very pessimistic then. At least half of the energy infrastructure has been damaged and a Ukrainian nuclear safety expert has warned that the situation is close to a critical threshold.

But Russia has been stockpiling weapons during these quiet weeks. Early Thursday morning, it launched 81 missiles and left four regions struggling with emergency power cuts.

On Friday, half a million people in Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, were still without electricity.

“It’s absolutely cold now. We have food, but only a few are cooked,” said Oleksii as his cell phone battery life dropped to 14%.

Five hundred people live in his building, and when he goes to his nearby “Invisibility Center” to connect his phone, there are many more with the same idea.

Kyiv was also affected and a hospital with 700 people was without heat and hot water for several hours.

In Zhytomyr, a two-hour drive south of the Belarusian border, 150,000 people were without power. The mayor said the next few weeks would be critical, with blackouts threatening the city west of Kiev.

But Zhytomyr resident Yevgeny Herasimchuk finished his workday on a sunny spring day and was optimistic about the future.

“We had three weeks without attacks, we had electricity. And the current in the system allowed local authorities to operate trolleybuses and trams. This was a big step because before that, public transport was suspended”.

For many Ukrainians, it didn’t take long to get back online.

“You can say that Ukraine has won on the energy front,” said Tetyana Boyko of the civil network Opora, praising energy workers and a fleet of international aid. “Let’s pray, but I think the worst is over.

Winter may be over, but Oleksiy in Kharkiv believes the battle to protect Ukraine’s electricity supply from Vladimir Putin’s missiles will continue as long as Russia has the ability to strike.

All of Ukraine’s thermal and hydropower plants have been damaged since Russia launched an attack on energy infrastructure last October. Kyiv has already lost the use of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia, which is in Russian hands.

Substations have been reduced to pieces of melted metal, unable to convert electricity into power for homes and businesses.

The BBC followed teams of engineers and technicians for two weeks to repair the damage caused by the missiles.

A substation has been hit six times by missiles or drones and it takes time to replace damaged transformers.

More by Paul Adams: On the front lines with engineers in Ukraine

Transformers soon became Ukraine’s number one demand. He needs more than the world can produce in a year, and so far only one high-voltage transformer has been shipped, although dozens of low-power machines have arrived.

As winter progressed, Ukrainian armed forces became more adept at shooting down Russian missiles and drones.

But this week, as Russia used other high-velocity weapons, only 34 missiles were destroyed. These include Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles.

“These missiles will cause massive destruction,” said an industry official.

Until the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022, 15 reactors at four power plants were in operation. Six of these furnaces were in Zaporizhzhia, which the occupying army captured in the first days of the invasion.

For months, the plant has been at the center of a nuclear dispute with significant stakes, with Moscow accusing it of wanting to connect it to the Russian electricity grid.

The other three plants are in southern Ukraine, as well as Rivne and Khmelnytskyi in the west. Between them, they now produce half of Ukraine’s electricity.

It may sound bleak, but a combination of an unusually mild winter and hard work has pulled Ukraine back from the brink and the sense of hope is palpable.

Power stations have been repaired and overhauled. An industry source told the BBC that as days get sunnier and hotter, Russia’s military might will become harder to threaten its country.

The city of Dnipro, in the country’s central-east, has seen several deadly missile attacks over the winter, and this week was no exception.

On the other hand, power supply has not faced any problem for weeks.

“The city has changed. The street lights have finally been restored, and it’s no longer scary to walk the streets of the city,” said Inna Shtango, a young mother whose son is under two.

Cooking and taking hot baths are once again part of her family’s daily routine. “Our psychological state has improved significantly as our family and other mothers can easily plan our day.”

Similar is the story of Kherson, which was occupied by Russian forces until they retreated across the Dnipro River last November.

Life was difficult for weeks after the Russians left the southern city without basic public services.

“We had no electricity for about a month and a week, then for two hours a day, the electricity gradually stopped failing,” says local entrepreneur Alexey Sandakov.

With a population of 55,000, a fraction of what it was before the Russian invasion, today it can boast a steady supply of electricity.

Population declines across Ukraine, with more than eight million refugees beyond its borders, have also reduced pressure on energy infrastructure. An official pointed out that consumption has decreased and refugees have not yet returned.

The general consensus is that the damage caused by this latest wave of missiles will be repaired soon.

The damage was extensive, but even after a major attack, engineers were very adept at restoring power within days.

“It’s like a competition: how quickly they damage us and how quickly we can fix them. We’re winning this competition,” said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of Kyiv’s Energy Department Research Center.

In Zhytomyr, Eugene Herasymchuk thinks he’s seeing things. “Many Ukrainians say cold winters and black winters are better than 100 years with Russia.

Mr. According to Karchenko, Ukrainians now hold all the cards, be it climate progress, support from international donors or professional staff in the energy sector. But he is more reserved about the future.

“I’m not saying we won the energy war, but I can say we won the energy war this winter.