– Global manufacturing growth is expected to slow from 3% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023, one of the slowest growth rates in recent decades.
– Global growth is expected to moderate to 2.7% in 2024 as some negative trends begin to fade.
– Recovery will depend on the pace and sequence of further monetary tightening, the development and consequences of the war in Ukraine and possible further supply chain disruptions.
– A gloomy global economic outlook also threatens the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
– Developed and developing countries are at risk of recession in 2023, in an environment of high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening and heightened uncertainty.
– The tightening of global financial conditions, combined with a strong dollar, has increased financial and credit vulnerabilities in developing countries.
– Since the end of 2021, more than 85% of central banks around the world have tightened monetary policy and rapidly raised interest rates to contain inflationary pressures and avoid recession.
– Global inflation, which has reached its highest level in decades, is expected to moderate to around 9% in 2022, but remain at a high rate of 6.5% in 2023.
– Most developing countries experienced relatively slow employment recovery in 2022 and face severe job shortages.
– By 2022, the number of people facing severe food insecurity has doubled compared to 2019, to nearly 350 million.
– Prolonged economic weakness and slow income growth will limit countries’ ability to invest heavily in the SDGs.
– Governments are called upon to avoid implementing fiscal austerity that hinders growth and disproportionately harms the most vulnerable groups, undermines progress on gender equality and hinders intergenerational development opportunities.
– It is recommended to reallocate public expenditure and reinvest through direct policy interventions, which will create jobs and boost growth.
– This will require strengthening social security systems through targeted and temporary subsidies, cash transfers and reductions in utility bills.
– There is a need to strengthen international commitments to expand access to emergency financial assistance, reduce restructuring and debt burdens in developing countries, and increase financing for the SDGs.
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